Thursday, July 19, 2007

Macro-view funnies

ahhh... the vagaries of macroeconomic prediction You know you are a Permabull when……

· each time the market declines you declare it a “healthy pullback”

· sideways moves are actually just the market “taking a breather” or a “pause”

· missing earnings estimates is ok as long as management confirms next quarter’s guidance

· bad guidance is ok as long as last quarter’s earnings beat estimates

· you criticize any analyst that downgrades your stock from “Strong Buy” to “Buy”

· you applaud poor economic results as good for the market because this time they will cause the Fed to stop raising rates

· any negative market commentary is evidence of a huge “wall of worry” that the market needs to go higher

· you plead that a 10% decline is a “great buying opportunity”

· you blame any market decline on short sellers who just don’t understand

· oil declines to $60 and you expect that will cause the market to head higher

· oil increases towards $70 and you point out how the market has been able to absorb higher oil prices

· you quote the cliches “history repeats itself” for positive things and “it’s different this time” for negative ones

· an inverted yield curve doesn’t concern you at all…

--- You Know You are a Permabear When…

· Each time the market rallies, you declare it an “unhealthy sign of speculative excess”

· The great majority of chart patterns always appear to be either rallies in a bear market or an imminent major top.

· CNBC asks you to appear as balance to the optimistic Bull guests.

· Good economic results are bad for the market – it will cause the Fed to keep raising rates; bad economic results are bad for the market -- its proof of the coming recession;

· You worship at the alter of the holy trinity: Roach, Fleckenstein and Kass;

· Sideways moves are actually just “setting up the market for the next down leg”

· You still rail against Nixon for taking the US off the gold standard;

· Your colleagues think you should become a fixed income portfolio manager.

· All the anecdotal evidence you see reveals excessive bullishness;

· You have trouble sleeping when you take a long trade.

· You refer to the 1987 crash, and the NASDAQ collapse of 2000, as "the good 'ole days." Bonus factoid: The LTCM debacle actually made you money.

· You have a ready "tulip-bulb" joke to use at all times.

· On days when gold prices drop, it's due to a government conspiracy;

· When gold prices rise, it's because central banks have finally lost control of manipulating the gold market. Either that, or the masses have finally figured out their fiat currency is just paper.

· If gold drops again the next day, see #1.

· The move from Dow 7,000 to Dow 11,000 has “just been short covering”

· When companies make quarterly earnings estimates, its bad because a) its already built it, and b) its evidence of earnings management. Missing earnings, on the other hand, is bad, because, well, its bad.

· Your website links to Marc Faber (The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report), Grant's Interest Rate Observer, and the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

· You criticize any analyst that upgrades a stock from “Strong Sell” to “Sell”

· The Yield Curve Inversion is a sure sign of the coming recession; As the inversion flattens, however, you note out how negative higher 10 Year Yields are for stocks;

· Positive market commentary is evidence of “complacency” and proof that the market must go lower;

· Any 10% rise in an stock is a “great shorting opportunity;”

· You blame market rallies on ignorant bulls “who just don’t understand;”

· The market is trading at 5 times earnings with a 5% yield -- and you are calling for the “next leg down”

· Strong economic data is proof that the BLS/BEA is politically fixed -- weak economic data shows how much the economy is slowing;

· You short anything that is in your parents' retirement portfolio – and are determined to outperform.

· You insist that Robert Prechter is just misunderstood