Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Value... or is it?

I take back what I said earlier about there being a lack of "value" stocks on the market... in fact, there are a bunch of value stocks out there if by our definition value means cheap cash-flows. Just recently, for example I've found as many as 5 or 6 companies that fits the cheap cash-flows criteria. A cursory glance at their financial statments will reveal that they are trading at around 5x free cash (I have to confess, a stock I currently hold, Yellow Roadway, is an example of this 5x past and current financials)

Now, I didn't complain about there being a lack of value because I am having trouble finding companies that could potentially be value companies, I'm complaining because all the potentials turn out to be duds. It's not only cheap cash-flows that is important to the upside of a company... what's even more important is the company's ability to sustain those cash-flows for the long-run. It's hard to find solid, sustainable companies with certainty and clear business objectives going forward. See, there has too be a reason why the business is trading at the multiple it's trading at, and if a company is trading at 5x free cash flow, the main reason for buying into the company is that it should be able to generate at least the current cash flows for more than 5 years, and some of the rinky dink companies around that has the facade of being cheap at 5x probably will never get the chance to make 5x the current investment.

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P.S. OMG, OMNI

1 comment:

JJT said...
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